Research and the Long Tail: A Large-Scale Citation Analysis

Where sales used to be limited to a few best-selling products as characterized by the Pareto principle, the Internet has transformed the business environment by enabling a long tail market for "non-hit" products. This study views research articles as products of the research community and equates citations with product sales to investigate the long tail effects within research. First, we determine if the long tail phenomenon is present in research. Second, we study changes in citation patterns prior to, during, and after prevalent use of the Internet in research. We gathered and analyzed 90,000+ articles published over 37 years. Results indicate that the long tail is beginning to work in both information behavior and research at large, albeit differently from commerce. Our research reveals convincing evidence that researchers, consciously or not, are starting to cite more "non-hit" articles. These findings signify a constructive and fundamental shift in our research practices.