Title :
Multi-scale Predictability of High-Impact Weather in the Battlespace Environment
Author :
Doyle, James ; Reynolds, Carolyn ; Bishop, Craig ; Goerss, James ; Holt, Teddy ; McLay, Justin
Author_Institution :
US Naval Res. Lab., Monterey, CA
Abstract :
New capabilities have been developed for the Navy´s mesoscale and global weather ensemble forecast systems. Inclusion of model perturbations is found to have a significant impact on both global and mesoscale ensemble performance. New methods for perturbing the initial conditions provide superior ensemble performance. The ensemble systems provide a probabilistic forecast capability for the occurrence of high-impact weather events, along with expected forecast skill information.
Keywords :
atmospheric techniques; weather forecasting; US Navy operations; battlespace environment; global weather ensemble forecast systems; high-impact weather events; mesoscale ensemble performance; probabilistic forecast capability; Aerosols; Atmospheric modeling; Clouds; Context modeling; Predictive models; Stochastic processes; Testing; Tropical cyclones; Uncertainty; Weather forecasting;
Conference_Titel :
DoD HPCMP Users Group Conference, 2008. DOD HPCMP UGC
Conference_Location :
Seattle, WA
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-3323-0
DOI :
10.1109/DoD.HPCMP.UGC.2008.16
