Title :
Forecasting: confronting the hazards
Author :
Linstone, Harold A.
Author_Institution :
Portland State Univ., OR, USA
Abstract :
Since the 1960s, when technological forecasting tools gained recognition, we have learned some valuable lessons in dealing with complex sociotechnical systems. The paper discusses three key sources of failure in forecasting (short-term focus, assumption drag, over simplification) and impact assessment of technology and suggests steps to overcome them
Keywords :
information technology; technological forecasting; assumption drag; complex sociotechnical systems; forecasting failure; information technology; over simplification; short-term focus; system complexity; technological forecasting tools; technology assessment; Economic forecasting; Extrapolation; Hazards; Logistics; Military aircraft; Power system modeling; Propellers; Sociotechnical systems; Space technology; Technology forecasting;
Conference_Titel :
Innovation in Technology Management - The Key to Global Leadership. PICMET '97: Portland International Conference on Management and Technology
Conference_Location :
Portland, OR
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-3574-0
DOI :
10.1109/PICMET.1997.653672
