Analysis of alternative energy sources for the united states Roadway Transportation System

Over the last decade, the U.S. transportation industry has produced approximately 60% of overall U.S. CO₂ emissions according to the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). A greener fuel alternative for the transportation system is needed to reduce energy-related emissions and to aid in the overall decrease in the consumption of fossil fuels. The system to be analyzed is defined as the Roadway Transportation System (RTS) of the United States. This project aims to rank six alternative fuels against several objectives for the next 30 years. These objectives include minimizing emissions and risk, while maximizing suitability and goods moved. Six alternatives are considered: gasoline, diesel, biodiesel, electric, hydrogen, and compressed natural gas (CNG) technologies. The capability and feasibility of each alternative is analyzed in accordance with satisfying all objectives. This system analysis is limited to cars, trucks, and buses. An External System Model (ESM) is developed to show the interactions of the RTS with external systems, and how those interactions map to the traceability of all objectives (1^st model). To conduct this analysis, data from previous years is collected for all objectives for each alternative. Regression of this data identifies the pattern of the alternatives against the objectives over time (2^nd model). Ranking of the alternatives is accomplished through Utility Evaluation (3rd model). The ranking process follows the Multi Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) process. Preliminary results show that there is uncertainty as to which alternative is best when weighed against the given objectives. However, electric and CNG rank the highest under pessimistic assumptions and electric and hydrogen rank highest under optimistic assumptions. Through analysis, all alternatives are ranked such that the objectives are satisfied over a 30 year period.