Risk assessment of disaster danger on the railways

China railway covers broad region, connects countless urban and rural, passes through complex climate and geographical environment, and suffers several internal and external risks. It can ensure safety of the whole railway if we establish risk assessment system based on the natural disaster and monitor the real-time risk. In this paper, we deeply analyzed the railway incidents caused by disaster, abstracted 3 meteorological factors and 5 geological factors closely related to incident. Then we collected enough historical data, established the relationship between the meteorological factors and the incident´s probability by curve fitting and grey relational analysis. We analyzed the quantitative relationship between the geological factors and the incident´s strength by AHP. Finally, we build a complete Risk Assessment System base on the Probability-Strength Matrix referring to Risk Matrix Theory. The system can provide real-time forecasting and warning for China railway.