System Risk Assessment Method on Water Resources Supply

Risk assessment on water resources is a new subject combined the water research technology and the uncertainty or risk theory. The water resources system is a complex dynamic system influenced by uncertain factors. Especially the stochastic characters of hydrological variables and time-space uncertainty of pollutants affected the water resources system security seriously. This paper is based on risk assessment and probability theory. The system risk is analyzed especially considering the river pollution and its average runoff shortage probability. The relative assessment indexes are set up. At the same time a quantitative water resources system risk model is preferred by adopting probability risk method to measure the water supply reliability based on water quantity shortage possibility and water quality pollution assessment. A case study on a practical river supply system was conducted. The simulation result indicated that the method is reasonable. The model and results in the paper can be used as reference to adjust water supply scheme and to work out regulation and protection policy.