The algorithm of probabilistic load flow retaining nonlinearity

In this paper, a novel method was presented for obtaining the probabilistic load flow (PLF) solution, with which we can gain the probabilistic nature (such as expectation and variance) of variables and line flows in networks. The method expands the mathematical model of calculation of load flow in a Taylor Series about mean value, and retaining nonlinear terms of the load flow equations, so improving the precision of the mathematical model; at the same time, it also considers linear factors by using a corresponding linear solution to replace higher order terms, so simplifying the mathematical model and making the method more practical; and more, the method applies the technique of probability and statistics, and that we only calculate load flow once to finish calculation of PLF, so enhancing speed of calculation. The method has good adaptability and can apply in a majority of instances. The performance of the proposed method is illustrated through the IEEE 14-busbar test system, and also compared with Monte Carlo simulation techniques, the result has shown that the method is available for calculation of PLF.