Using the impact matrix for predictive situational awareness

In order to manage situations efficiently, commanders need to be aware of possible future events that might occur. They also need to be aware of the relative probabilities of different events, so that they know which events to take into account when making plans of their own. In this paper, we describe a concept prototype that was developed at FOI during 2006 that helps commanders do these tasks. The impact matrix is a tool that has been used in business for risk handling. We describe the impact matrix and how it can be adapted for military use. To connect observations from soldiers and sensors to events, indicators are used as tags. Belief networks are used to connect indicators to events. Results from a preliminary experiment using a scenario based on an asymmetric conflict where a Swedish battle group is tasked with preserving peace are presented.