Ups and Downs in Buzzes: Life Cycle Modeling for Temporal Pattern Discovery

In social media analysis, one critical task is detecting burst of topics or buzz, which is reflected by extremely frequent mentions of certain key words in a short time interval. Detecting buzz not only provides useful insights into the information propagation mechanism, but also plays an essential role in preventing malicious rumors. However, buzz modeling is a challenging task because a buzz time-series usually exhibits sudden spikes and heavy tails, which fails most existing time-series models. To deal with buzz time-series sequences, we propose a novel time-series modeling approach which captures the rise and fade temporal patterns via Product Life Cycle (PLC) models, a classical concept in economics. More specifically, we propose a mixture of PLC models to capture the multiple peaks in buzz time-series and furthermore develop a probabilistic graphical model (K-MPLC) to automatically discover inherent life cycle patterns within a collection of buzzes. Our experiment results show that our proposed method significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art approaches on buzzes clustering.