An Optimized GM(1,1) Model Based on the Modified Construction Method of Background Value

Author

Li Hong-Wei ; Liu Qing-you ; Mao Wen-jin

Author_Institution

Southwest Pet. Univ., Chengdu, China

fYear

2010

fDate

17-19 Dec. 2010

Firstpage

41

Lastpage

44

Abstract

The construction method of background value has been researched in this paper because it is one key to affect the precision and adaptability of GM(1,1) model. And a new calculation formula of background value has been reestablished based on the literatures. Besides, in order to further improve the precision, the initial value of GM (1,1) prediction formula has been developed and optimized by using the minimum sum of error square. The fitting and predictive results of examples indicate that the new model has higher precision and is suitable for both low and high developing coefficient data sequence.

Keywords

Gaussian processes; data handling; error analysis; optimisation; GM(1,1) Model; background value; coefficient data sequence; initial value; optimization; prediction formula; Adaptation model; Data models; Differential equations; Fitting; Mathematical model; Performance analysis; Predictive models; 1) model; GM(1; background value; initial value; optimization; reestablishment;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Computational and Information Sciences (ICCIS), 2010 International Conference on

Conference_Location

Chengdu

Print_ISBN

978-1-4244-8814-8

Electronic_ISBN

978-0-7695-4270-6

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/ICCIS.2010.17

Filename

5709008