Combined Forecast of Air Freight Volume Based on Approximate Optimal Non-negative Weight

Author

Wen Jun ; Lin, Wang

Author_Institution

Coll. of Aviation Transp. Manage., Civil Aviation Flight Univ. of China, Guanghan, China

fYear

2010

fDate

17-19 Dec. 2010

Firstpage

1232

Lastpage

1235

Abstract

Employing the statistics of air cargo volume of China from 1997 to 2007, using the Gray GM(1, 1) model and Regression Analysis model combined for optimization, an air cargo volume combination forecasting model based on approximate optimal non-negative weight is established and validated. The result shows that this model is effective, suitable, more accurate, and is applicable to practice. Then the combination forecasting model is used to forecast the air cargo volume in China from 2009 to 2012. The result is helpful for the decision-making agents in mid-long term planning and operation management.

Keywords

forecasting theory; freight handling; goods distribution; regression analysis; air cargo volume statistics; air freight volume forecast; approximate optimal non negative weight; gray GM(1,1) model; regression analysis model; Analytical models; Atmospheric modeling; Biological system modeling; Forecasting; Mathematical model; Predictive models; Solid modeling; air freight volume; combination forecasting; gray forecasting; non-negative weight; regression analysis;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Computational and Information Sciences (ICCIS), 2010 International Conference on

Conference_Location

Chengdu

Print_ISBN

978-1-4244-8814-8

Electronic_ISBN

978-0-7695-4270-6

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/ICCIS.2010.304

Filename

5709504