Title :
Combined Forecast of Air Freight Volume Based on Approximate Optimal Non-negative Weight
Author :
Wen Jun ; Lin, Wang
Author_Institution :
Coll. of Aviation Transp. Manage., Civil Aviation Flight Univ. of China, Guanghan, China
Abstract :
Employing the statistics of air cargo volume of China from 1997 to 2007, using the Gray GM(1, 1) model and Regression Analysis model combined for optimization, an air cargo volume combination forecasting model based on approximate optimal non-negative weight is established and validated. The result shows that this model is effective, suitable, more accurate, and is applicable to practice. Then the combination forecasting model is used to forecast the air cargo volume in China from 2009 to 2012. The result is helpful for the decision-making agents in mid-long term planning and operation management.
Keywords :
forecasting theory; freight handling; goods distribution; regression analysis; air cargo volume statistics; air freight volume forecast; approximate optimal non negative weight; gray GM(1,1) model; regression analysis model; Analytical models; Atmospheric modeling; Biological system modeling; Forecasting; Mathematical model; Predictive models; Solid modeling; air freight volume; combination forecasting; gray forecasting; non-negative weight; regression analysis;
Conference_Titel :
Computational and Information Sciences (ICCIS), 2010 International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Chengdu
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-8814-8
Electronic_ISBN :
978-0-7695-4270-6
DOI :
10.1109/ICCIS.2010.304
