Combining load and condition based risk models for integrated investment planning

Over the past 12 years the authors and colleagues at EA Technology have worked with Electricity Distribution and Transmission companies in many countries developing and applying asset based risk models to assist with planning and justifying investments. Initially the work concentrated on building detailed asset models that quantified the risk (expressed as £, $ or €) arising from deteriorating asset condition (Condition Based Risk Management, CBRM). Over the past 2 years the authors have continued the development of the methodology by applying it to the quantification of load related risk and have succeeded in creating a process that combines load and condition based risk. The essential output from the combined model is a measure of risk (expressed as £, $ or €) now and in the future, reflecting both the changing condition of the assets and changes in load. Potential interventions, replacement of assets or reinforcement of the network can then be factored in and the resulting risk re-quantified. This provides the means to compare the cost benefit of different potential interventions and ultimately to justify specific investment plans (using NPV or similar financial analysis).