Title :
A study on the characteristics of GM (1, 1) model
Author :
Kang, Xiaojian ; Yao, Tianxiang ; Liu, Sifeng
Author_Institution :
Coll. of Econ. & Manage., Nanjing Univ. of Aeronaut. & Astronaut., Nanjing
Abstract :
When the forecast model is to be established, the problem is often confronted that the more the sample data is, the worse the precision is. Based on the geometric sequence, the paper probes the influence on the error of the simulation value exerted by different sample numbers. The paper studies the relation between the growth rates of the primary sequence, development coefficient and the growth rates of the simulation values. The results show that to the non-negative monotonic increasing geometric sequence the more sample numbers are selected, the more average relative error the simulation is. The results show that usually small sample has more precision than the big sample.
Keywords :
forecasting theory; grey systems; GM (1, 1) model; forecast model; nonnegative monotonic increasing geometric sequence; simulation error; Automation; Economic forecasting; Educational institutions; Exponential distribution; Intelligent control; Optimization methods; Predictive models; Probes; Solid modeling; Time factors; GM (1, 1) model; discrete GM (1, 1) model; geometric sequence;
Conference_Titel :
Intelligent Control and Automation, 2008. WCICA 2008. 7th World Congress on
Conference_Location :
Chongqing
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-2113-8
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-2114-5
DOI :
10.1109/WCICA.2008.4592882
