Real-time risk management based on time series analysis

Real-time risk assessment, forecasting risk trend and dynamic risk management are main contents of the real-time risk management. It is a new research field of information security technology. This paper proposes a novel approach to real-time risk management framework. The framework consists of real-time risk assessment, risk prediction and dynamic risk management. The real-time risk assessment module adopts a multi-perspective evaluation model and it uses the description of system assets, security attacks, vulnerabilities and security services to assess the current risk. The risk prediction module studies the changes of risk and forecasts the future risk with time series model. Risk monitor and security strategy implement dynamic risk management. Risk monitor module monitors the system current risk and its trend. According to the relationship between future risk and risk threshold, it supervises security strategy module to dynamically adjust system security strategy. Security strategy module implements various security strategies and schemas. Simulation results show that the framework is suitable and efficient.