A hybrid expert system assisting decision making for distribution system load forecasting

Author

Morsi, D.M. ; Abbasy, N.H. ; Ella, M. S Abul

Author_Institution

Dept. of Electr. Eng., Alexandria Univ., Egypt

fYear

1994

fDate

12-14 Apr 1994

Firstpage

893

Abstract

This paper introduces a typically intelligent hybrid expert system (ES) for an annualized distribution system load forecasting. The proposed ES has the capability of predicting the annual distribution substation load growth, and patterns of subsequent load shifts, in the case of a substation overload. Also, possible expected system expansion plans are introduced. The parameters of the load growth model are estimated for each substation. The load transfer model is chosen to follow the Weibull distribution function and to simulate different factors affecting the transfer process. The ES is developed using an artificial intelligence language (PROLOG), and is applied to Alexandria city, 66/11 kV power distribution network

Keywords

Weibull distribution; decision support systems; digital simulation; distribution networks; expert systems; load forecasting; power system analysis computing; power system planning; substations; 11 kV; 66 kV; Alexandria city; PROLOG; Weibull distribution function; annual distribution substation load growth; artificial intelligence language; decision making; distribution system; expected system expansion plans; hybrid expert system; intelligent hybrid expert system; load forecasting; load growth model estimation; load shift patterns; load transfer model; transfer process; Artificial intelligence; Cities and towns; Decision making; Expert systems; Hybrid intelligent systems; Load forecasting; Load modeling; Power system modeling; Substations; Weibull distribution;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Electrotechnical Conference, 1994. Proceedings., 7th Mediterranean

Conference_Location

Antalya

Print_ISBN

0-7803-1772-6

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/MELCON.1994.380958

Filename

380958