A new planning model for assessing the effects of transmission capacity constraints on the reliability of generation supply for large nonequivalenced electric networks

This paper presents a new model for calculating the reliability of large electric networks with transmission constraints. Generation loss of load probability (LOLP) and expected unserved energy (EUE) are calculated with and without transmission constraints and displayed for the system and for each load area over a wide range of load levels. A two step process first finds the cumulative probabilistic line flow distributions from incremental flows resulting from random generator failures and then performs load shedding as a heuristic process to remove line overloads. Convolution of states allows an extremely large number of generator states to be modeled in a reasonable amount of computation time. Test results for a large network and for the IEEE Reliability Test system (RTS) are discussed in the paper