Simulation Analysis of Water Resource System in Henan Province China Affected by the South-to-North Water Transfer

Under the water resource circumstances of Henan province China is gradually austere situation, South-to-North water transfer can betterly improves Henan´s condition lack for water, in order to analysis its influencing degree, the system dynamics model of water resource is founded based on water resource sustainable development idea and system dynamics theory. System dynamics(SD) can settled complex system problems and be good at the periodic, long-term and nonlinear problems, and it fit to deal with the short data and low precision problems. The SD system action is found based on the reciprocity of factors in house system, and it assumes that the change of exterior environment can´t gives system action essential affect and internal system factors can´t control system action. The result of system simulation shows the influence of South-to-North transfer is important to Henan´s water resources balance of supply and demand, water utilization structure, water absence structure and ensurance probabilities of water supply.