Title :
Short-Time Traffic Flow Forecasting Based on Projection Pursuit Auto-Regression
Author :
Xiao-Yuan, Wang ; Hai-Hong, Liu ; Zhi-ping, Liu
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Transportation & Vehicle Eng., Shandong Univ. of Technol., Zibo
fDate :
Aug. 30 2006-Sept. 1 2006
Abstract :
Accurate short-term traffic flow forecasting is one of the important issues for intelligent transportation systems research, especially for the advanced traffic management systems and advanced traveler information systems research. With the shortening of the forecasting term, the uncertainty of traffic flow becomes more and more seriously, so that the forecasting effect of general approaches is decreasing. For an example, the algorithm based on non-parametric regression is a real-time nonparametric forecasting algorithm with the characteristic of high transplantation and accuracy, which plays an important role in traffic flow forecasting, yet there is the problem of "dimension curse" as the dimensions of the sample data increase. For the purpose of solving the question of short-time traffic flow forecasting, a short-time traffic flow forecasting model based on projection pursuit auto-regression technique is established in this paper. The problem of "dimension curse" and non-normality among high-dimensions data are solved. This algorithm satisfies the need of real-time traffic flow forecasting completely through the field data test
Keywords :
autoregressive processes; forecasting theory; nonparametric statistics; road traffic; transportation; advanced traffic management system; advanced traveler information system; dimension curse problem; intelligent transportation system; nonnormality problem; projection pursuit autoregression technique; real-time nonparametric traffic flow forecasting algorithm; short-time traffic flow forecasting model; Communication system traffic control; Data analysis; Intelligent transportation systems; Management information systems; Neural networks; Predictive models; Statistics; Telecommunication traffic; Testing; Traffic control;
Conference_Titel :
Innovative Computing, Information and Control, 2006. ICICIC '06. First International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Beijing
Print_ISBN :
0-7695-2616-0
DOI :
10.1109/ICICIC.2006.153