Reliability physics and probabilistic design for reliability (PDfR): Role, attributes, challenges

The recently suggested probabilistic design for reliability (PDfR) concept proceeds from the recognition that nothing is perfect, and that the difference between a highly reliable and an insufficiently robust product is “merely” in the level of the probability of its failure. The PDfR effort includes: (1) Highly focused and highly cost-effective failure oriented accelerated testing (FOAT) aimed at understanding the reliability physics underlying of the occurred or anticipated failures; (2) Simple and physically meaningful predictive modeling (PM) effort geared to a particular FOAT model and aimed at bridging the gap between the obtained FOAT information and what will supposedly take place in the field; and (3) Extensive sensitivity analysis (SA) that should be carried out, if necessary, to determine what could possibly be done to change the predicted probability of failure. The general concepts are illustrated by practical examples.