"The 2nd order of magnitude" - the video revolution and all-optical services

Summary form only given. "The 1st order of magnitude" - from POTS to DSL (64 kb/s to 512 kb/s) - is today being installed with a speed that exceeds expectations. It is now time to look ahead to "the 2nd order of magnitude" in research and development. This means the step from sub-Mb/s to multi-Mb/s to the end-user, and the corresponding networks. Practically the only driver for this would be video services in some form. The paper reviews the drivers for video services from a basic human and historic perspective. It also examines the bandwidth and service requirements for this "video revolution", and the role optical networks can play. The new image devices are not "stationary targets", so that the existing common perception of "2 Mb/s per image channel" will not be satisfactory for all time. Moreover, delivery will be over a multiplicity of competing media: broadcast, cable, discs, copper, and fibre. Quality and personalisation, both very bandwidth-driving, will be a critical competitive advantage. The role of optics is fundamental, but its role as an independent service-layer is more unclear, and depends on a matching between end-user and business oriented requirements, that must have a direct, technical realisation in the optical layer if the function shall be effectively solved by "all-optical" approaches.