Portfolio risk analysis based generation expansion planning considering CO2 trading

Author

Phuc, Nguyen Xuan ; Marpaung, Charles ; Shrestha, Ram M.

Author_Institution

Energy Field of Study, Asian Inst. of Technol., Pathumthani, Thailand

fYear

2010

fDate

2-4 June 2010

Firstpage

1

Lastpage

8

Abstract

This paper presents a new generation expansion model that considers the fluctuation of fuel prices and effects of CO₂ trading. This model is applied to Viet Nam power sector during 2013-2030. This model finds out the efficient curve containing all feasible technology mixes. Each feasible mix represented by a value of risk-aversion factor has different value of risk, revenue from CO₂ trading and present value of total cost (PVTC). The result shows that the higher the PVTC, the lower the volatility of fuel cost and the higher the revenue from CO₂ trading. In the case of Viet Nam, if the investor selects high value of risk-aversion factor, renewables, such as solar and win, will become attractive. Furthermore, coal will be the dominant technology that replaces gas and oil.

Keywords

commerce; power generation planning; CO₂ trading; fuel prices; generation expansion planning; portfolio risk analysis; present value of total cost; Planning; Pricing; CO2 trading; efficient curve; generation expansion; risk; volatility;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Energy and Sustainable Development: Issues and Strategies (ESD), 2010 Proceedings of the International Conference on

Conference_Location

Chiang Mai

Print_ISBN

978-1-4244-8563-5

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/ESD.2010.5598790

Filename

5598790