Title :
Probabilistic planning of transmission systems: Why, how and an actual example
Author :
Li, Wenyuan ; Choudhury, Paul
Author_Institution :
British Columbia Transm. Corp., Vancouver, BC
Abstract :
This paper discussed the basic concepts, criteria, procedures and methods in probabilistic transmission planning. The main purpose is to capture probabilistic characteristics in power system planning including uncertainties in load forecast, generator locations, and random failures of system equipment. Two key steps in probabilistic transmission planning are probabilistic reliability evaluation and economic analysis. The basic procedures of the two key steps have been presented. The probabilistic transmission planning method adds one more dimension to enhance the planning process. An actual example at BCTC provides more insights and indicates that probabilistic transmission planning is a powerful means and can help save investment in planning while keeping an acceptable system reliability level.
Keywords :
load forecasting; power transmission economics; power transmission planning; power transmission reliability; economic analysis; generator locations; load forecasting; power system planning; probabilistic reliability evaluation; probabilistic transmission planning; system equipment random failures; Character generation; Economic forecasting; Load forecasting; Power generation; Power generation economics; Power system economics; Power system planning; Power system reliability; Process planning; Uncertainty; economic analysis; planning criteria; probabilistic planning; reliability evaluation;
Conference_Titel :
Power and Energy Society General Meeting - Conversion and Delivery of Electrical Energy in the 21st Century, 2008 IEEE
Conference_Location :
Pittsburgh, PA
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-1905-0
Electronic_ISBN :
1932-5517
DOI :
10.1109/PES.2008.4596093