Title :
Reliability index forecast by fuzzy principle
Author :
Katithummarugs, S. ; Apiwattananon, A. ; Labchareonwong, P. ; Sirisophonwattana, N. ; Teera-achariyakul, N. ; Rerkpreedapong, D.
Author_Institution :
Syst. Oper. Div., Provincial Electr. Authority of Thailand, Bangkok, Thailand
Abstract :
This paper proposes the reliability index forecast of the feeders in the central area of Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA), during 2002 - 2009. The failure rate distribution of each protective device (Breaker, Recloser and Fuse) is assumed by Weibull distribution. In addition, fuzzy set is introduced to describe the uncertainty of those failure rates by combining each failure rate of protective devices which effect to a load point. Finally, the incoming year System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI) of each feeder can be calculated by fuzzy principle base on the evaluated failure rates and number of customers at that load point.
Keywords :
Weibull distribution; circuit breakers; electric fuses; failure analysis; fuzzy set theory; power distribution faults; power distribution reliability; PEA; Provincial Electricity Authority; Weibull distribution; failure rate distribution; fuzzy set theory; protective device; reliability index forecasting; system average interruption frequency index; Animals; Indexes; Maintenance engineering; Vehicles; Failure rate; fuzzy set; mean time to failure; reliability index; weibull distribution;
Conference_Titel :
Energy and Sustainable Development: Issues and Strategies (ESD), 2010 Proceedings of the International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Chiang Mai
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-8563-5
DOI :
10.1109/ESD.2010.5598875
