Stochastic impact assessment of the heating and transportation systems electrification on LV grids

According to the new energy policy agreements, a conceptual and technological re-structuration of the Danish energy sector is expected. One of the key points for its successful implementation is the partial electrification of the heating and transportation systems. This fact, which reflects an enormous load increase, influences already the design and planning of the future power system. Great percentage of this new load is expected to be accommodated at local distribution level. Therefore, it implies that the distribution system operator will have to handle an increasing number of highly rated loads in networks which were not designed for them. In low voltage grids especially, depending on the system penetration grade and the way they are disposed produces a completely different reaction of the network. This paper introduces a methodology for stochastically evaluating the impact caused by thermostatic and plug-in electric vehicle loads in low voltage grids. On one hand, it defines which the potential bottlenecks of the system are. On the other hand, probabilistically identifies the vulnerable components of the infrastructure that obviously should be under consideration of the operator. As a case study, a typical Danish low voltage grid is considered. The results obtained, using DIgSILENT PowerFactory, show that sometimes the hosting capability of these networks may be poor for the integration levels expected.