Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for generating scenarios in business strategic planning

The aim of this study is to investigate a new method for generating scenarios in order to cope with the data shortage and linguistic expression of an expert in scenario planning This study incorporates the concepts of neural network and fuzzy logic. The proposed methodology includes: (1) defining the scope and internal and external variables (2) determining rules from experts (3) preparing ANFIS system and (4) generating probable scenarios based on training algorithm. Following this structure, it is possible to generate the feasible scenarios with their associated degree of probabilities. The applicability of the proposed method has been tested against a case study.