The application of Grey-Markov combined model for port cargo throughput forecasting

Author

Liu Shuang ; Tian Lixia

Author_Institution

Dept. of Econ. & Manage., North China Electr. Power Univ., Baoding, China

fYear

2012

fDate

29-31 May 2012

Firstpage

973

Lastpage

976

Abstract

In this paper, we proposed a dynamic analysis model which combines grey GM(1,1)model and Markov chain model as the Grey-Markov model to predict the cargo throughput. Because the forecasting accuracy of single grey GM(1,1)model is lower. The Grey-Markov model can improve the accuracy prediction for the cargo throughput. The new combined model has the advantages of both Grey forecasting method and Markov chains forecasting method. Using the data of Qin Huangdao port is conducted to evaluate the Grey-Markov model which shows that the precision of the Grey-Markov model is better than the Grey model.

Keywords

Markov processes; forecasting theory; goods distribution; sea ports; Grey forecasting method; Grey-Markov combined model; Markov chains forecasting method; Qin Huangdao port data; dynamic analysis model; forecasting accuracy prediction improvement; grey GM(1,1)model; port cargo throughput forecasting; Analytical models; Data models; Forecasting; Markov processes; Predictive models; Throughput; GM(1,1) model; Markov chain; forecasting; port carogo throughput;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery (FSKD), 2012 9th International Conference on

Conference_Location

Sichuan

Print_ISBN

978-1-4673-0025-4

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/FSKD.2012.6234311

Filename

6234311