Risk analysis of robust system design

Author

Gaury, E.G.A. ; Kleijnen, J.P.C.

Author_Institution

Dept. of Inf. Syst. & Auditing, Tilburg Univ., Netherlands

Volume

2

fYear

1998

fDate

13-16 Dec 1998

Firstpage

1533

Abstract

Robustness has become a popular issue in engineering. For products, G. Taguchi (1986) suggests adjusting the design so that product performance is insensitive to the effects of uncontrolled environmental variations. For systems (to be distinguished from products), we propose to adjust the design so that the risk of getting poor performance is minimized. This risk is evaluated by simulating the system over a sample of environmental scenarios: this procedure yields an estimate of the probability distribution of the outcome. We illustrate this risk/uncertainty approach to robustness through the comparison of four pull production-control systems, including Kanban and Conwip. We conclude that the traditional approach consisting of optimizing the design of a system for a specific environment (base scenario) may be risky

Keywords

digital simulation; probability; product development; production control; risk management; Conwip; Kanban; Taguchi; base scenario; engineering; environmental scenarios; probability distribution; product performance; pull production-control systems; risk analysis; risk/uncertainty approach; robust system design; robustness; system simulation; uncontrolled environmental variations; Analytical models; Environmental economics; Management information systems; Noise robustness; Product design; Risk analysis; Stochastic systems; System analysis and design; Uncertainty; Working environment noise;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Simulation Conference Proceedings, 1998. Winter

Conference_Location

Washington, DC

Print_ISBN

0-7803-5133-9

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/WSC.1998.746026

Filename

746026