Modeling misperceptions in the Persian Gulf crisis

The Persian Gulf war is modeled as a hypergame with respect to the situation existing by January 15, 1991. The conflict is modeled as a 1st-level hypergame prior to the beginning of the air campaign, where Iraq had misinterpretations about the coalition´s preferences. The misperceptions led to the Iraqi´s miscalculations about the possible consequences of the confrontation. According to the hypergame analysis, which was completed before January 15, 1991, the predicted resolution is outcome 18, where the US-led forces launch air strikes against the strategic targets in Iraq and occupied Kuwait, followed by a full scale ground war, while Iraq responds with military offensives. This prediction coincides in most part to what happened historically