Simulation of Individual´s Representative Activity-Travel Pattern Based on Cluster Analysis and Monte Carlo Method

This Individualpsilas representative activity-travel pattern is the foundation of analyzing travel time, space and mode. Based on the actual data of 2004psilas resident trip survey in one metropolis of north China, by using the systematic cluster analysis, thousands of citizens are divided into groups with representative activity-travel patterns according to representative social-economic attributes and activity-travel characteristics. By using the Monte Carlo method, every individual is endowed with a representative activity-travel pattern and the simulation of the activity-travel patterns of the whole urban residents is performed. The result shows that the maximum deviation of simulation ratio of full-time workerpsilas activity chain and actual ratio is 3.88%. It is the demonstration that simulation of individual representative activity-travel pattern based on systematic cluster analysis and Monte Carlo method is an effective way to gain the classified groupspsila activity-travel characteristics.