Model based decision support for creation and operation of sustainable infrastructure

This paper focuses on the use of system thinking, complex adaptive systems theory and modeling to help create and operate sustainable energy infrastructure. These are capital-intensive, long-lived large scale socio-technical systems that evolve over decades. To enable high-level decision support on climate policy, strategic investment decisions or transition management, we are evolving a simulation engine for agent-based simulation of infrastructure development. The key functionality and capability of this engine is its ability for playing out possible futures, to identify development patterns and conditions for sustainability by exploring multiple scenarios. Two of the models completed serve to illustrate the approach. These address the ecological impact of bio-electricity and the long-term effect of CO₂ policy on the electricity production technology portfolio. Limits and opportunities of the approach are discussed and an outline for future research is given.