A two-stage stochastic optimization model for air traffic conflict resolution under wind uncertainty

This paper considers the air traffic conflict resolution problem in the context of wind uncertainty. Aircraft are assigned changes in airspeed to prevent conflict. The goal is to determine the optimal maneuver to balance deviation costs (e.g., fuel costs) and the probability of conflict. A two-stage recourse model is developed, in which new airspeeds are assigned in the first stage, based on expected costs due to possible corrective actions in the second stage. The second-stage considers the expected costs for any last-minute maneuvers to compensate wind modeling errors. The resulting model is solved in real-time via numerical methods, providing optimal airspeed values for the resolution of a conflict.