Title :
Prediction of Dynamic Line Rating Based on Assessment Risk by Time Series Weather Model
Author :
Kim, Dong-Min ; Cho, Jong-Man ; Lee, Hyo-Sang ; Jung, Hyun-Soo ; Kim, Jin-O
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Electr. Eng., Hanyang Univ., Seoul
Abstract :
This paper suggests the method that forecasts dynamic line rating (DLR). Thermal overload risk (TOR) of the next time is forecasted based on the present weather condition and DLR value by Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). To model weather elements of transmission line for MCS, this paper will propose the use of statistical weather models that time series law is applied Also, through the case study, it is confirmed that the forecasted TOR probability can be utilized as criterion that decides DLR of next time. In short, proposed method may be used usefully to keep security and reliability of transmission line by forecasting transmission capacity of the next time
Keywords :
Markov processes; load forecasting; power system management; power transmission reliability; risk management; time series; weather forecasting; DLR prediction; MCS; Monte Carlo simulation; dynamic line rating; probability; reliability; risk assessment; security; time series weather model; transmission capacity forecasting; transmission line; Area measurement; Conductors; Current measurement; Power system dynamics; Power system modeling; Power transmission lines; Predictive models; Probability; Temperature; Weather forecasting; Dynamic line rating; Monte Carlo Simulation; forecast rating; thermal overload risk; time series;
Conference_Titel :
Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, 2006. PMAPS 2006. International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Stockholm
Print_ISBN :
978-91-7178-585-5
DOI :
10.1109/PMAPS.2006.360329
