A Simulation Based Evaluation of the Influence of Uncertainty in Electricity Market on Transfer Capability

Information of transfer capability is essential to the efficient use of electric power networks. Transfer capability is evaluated using an assumption of how outputs of generators are changed to modify power transfer between areas. One of the typical assumptions is to use the estimated merit order of the generators. However, such assumption is not necessarily accurate enough to represent complexity and variety of behaviors of electricity market participants. In this paper, multi-agent based market simulation and maximum transfer capability (TTC) evaluation is applied to evaluate the influence of the variation of market participant behaviors on TTC over the interconnected networks. The overall assessment process is based on Monte-Carlo simulation to take into account the stochastic nature of total demand. The distribution of transfer capability is obtained, which represents the impact of the uncertainty in the electricity market as well as the uncertainty of demand. Numerical examples show that the proposed scheme can evaluate the impact of uncertainty in the electricity market on TTC and is applicable to a risk assessment of insufficient TTC