Title :
Risk Analysis in Electricity Markets by using Decision Trees
Author :
Mosquera, N. ; Reneses, J. ; Barquín, J. ; Sánchez-Úbeda, E.F.
Author_Institution :
Instituto de Investigacion Tecnologica, Universidad Pontificia Comillas, Madrid
Abstract :
This paper describes a procedure for medium-and long-term risk analysis by using decision trees. A market equilibrium model is presented in order to assess the impact of the different sources of uncertainty. Decision trees are defined and applied in a study case, showing the advantages of these techniques for medium-term operation and planning. The paper analyzes different scenarios of five main risk factors: hydro-inflows, fuel (coal and gas) costs, system demand, and CO 2 emission price
Keywords :
decision trees; power markets; risk analysis; CO2 emission price; decision tree; electricity market; fuel cost; hydro-inflow; market equilibrium model; medium-term operation; medium-term planning; risk analysis; risk factor; system demand; uncertainty source; Costs; Decision trees; Electricity supply industry; Fuels; Power system analysis computing; Power system planning; Production; Risk analysis; Stochastic processes; Uncertainty; Decision Trees; Electricity Markets; Gas Options; Market Equilibrium; Risk Factors; Risk Management;
Conference_Titel :
Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, 2006. PMAPS 2006. International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Stockholm
Print_ISBN :
978-91-7178-585-5
DOI :
10.1109/PMAPS.2006.360343
