Study on the wind speed frequency distribution with AR-GARCH model

The main existing mathematical models that describe wind speed frequency distribution were introduced in this paper, and the characteristics and limitations of each model were analyzed. Then, based on the considerations of the actual wind speed frequency distribution features, AR-GARCH model was adopted here in order to fully reflect the randomicity and wave character of the wind speed varied with time, which can effectively avoid large fitting errors in low-speed and zero-speed zone existing in current-used models, especially for those distribution curves with multiple peaks, and has the most strong universal applicability. Finally, the validity and correctness of the simulation method using AR-GARCH model were verified by the calculation and analysis of three typical engineering projects.