The Small-disturbance Voltage Stability Analysis through Adaptive AR Model Based on PMU

In this paper a new method is proposed for predicting the small-disturbance voltage stability in real-time with adaptive time series and PMU. Using adaptive AR model to predict bus voltage is different from the traditional method, which depend on the power system model. The AR model is independent of the history data, whose parameters are built and updated by the synchronized data coming from PMU, results in much quick and much accurate outcome. The paper estimates the stability of predicted bus voltage by the local voltage stability assessment. To test this method, the simulation is performed on the standard IEEE 3-machine 9-bus system in MATLAB/SIMULINK. The results show the effectiveness of this method. The study reveals that this method can predict the voltage phasor under small disturbance rapidly, and save time for the voltage stability control