The intelligent space-time prediction and analysis of the 3D loess slope geological disaster based on GIS

Because of combined effects of climate, soil conditions, earthquake and wider area of loess in the loess region, the landslide disasters occur frequently in China´s northwest. The authors propose an intelligent space-time prediction and analysis method which can be applied widely. The method can achieve 3D expression of prediction and analysis of landslide geological disasters, and it can provide a visual 3D information platform for the results and methods. This paper provides technical methods and theoretical basis to reduce and prevent the landslide geological disasters based on intelligent space-time predicting and analysis method. The main work of this paper is as follows: 1) intelligent modeling; 2) space-time model establishment. It includes two parts: the first part is forecasting 3D space. The program quantitatively calculated 3D stability modulus by taking advantage of GIS-based 3D cell model, and then searched out the most unfavorable slip surface by genetic algorithm. The second part is time predicting; 3) intelligent knowledge base construction. Using artificial intelligence technology to analyze, extract landslide factors and estimate factors´ weights, the authors construct an intelligent knowledge base of 3D landslide. It can guide the research and prediction of unknown landslide. Finally, based on this research, the authors search out a most dangerous slip surface successfully by using Jiagou Sun landslide data in the loess, the results of this research have been verified.