Statistical characterization of wind power output for a given wind power forecast

The stochastic nature of wind power output makes the integration of high penetration of wind into the power grid a real challenge. In this work, the uncertainty associated with the wind power output for a given wind power forecast is modeled using conditional probability density functions (pdf). Two pdf functions are considered: Beta and extreme value. Simulation results show that, in general, the proposed extreme value distribution outperforms Beta distribution at data bins of high wind power forecast whereas Beta is usually better at low to moderate wind forecast.