Notice of RetractionNonlinear Autoregressive model with eXogenous input for exchange rate forecasting

Notice of Retraction

After careful and considered review of the content of this paper by a duly constituted expert committee, this paper has been found to be in violation of IEEE´s Publication Principles.

We hereby retract the content of this paper. Reasonable effort should be made to remove all past references to this paper.

The presenting author of this paper has the option to appeal this decision by contacting TPII@ieee.org.

The exchange-rate time series is a dynamic non-linear system, whose characteristics cannot be reflected by neither the linear regression model nor the static neutral network. The Nonlinear Autoregressive with eXogenous input (NARX) includes the feedback of the network output, therefore can reflect the dynamic property of the system. This paper analyzed the chaotic property of the exchange-rate time series, calculated the embedding dimension of the series, and established the exchange-rate forecast model using the NARX network. The result shows that the NARX network has better short-term and mid-term forecast effect, comparing to the BP network and the ARIMA model.