Title :
Network and business modelling under traffic forecast uncertainty: a case study
Author :
Geary, Neil ; Antonopoulos, Andreas ; Mitchell, John
Author_Institution :
Commun. Eng. Doctrate Centre, Univ. Coll. London, UK
Abstract :
Uncertainty is a problem for network planning since networks are dimensioned around traffic forecasts looking several years into the future. In this paper we investigate a methodology which can quantify the effects of traffic forecast uncertainty on the network design cost and also its robustness in terms of traffic carrying capability. Both traffic volume and distribution uncertainties are encompassed in the analyses for a case study network topology. Different sized networks are also investigated. The paper concludes by relating this network modelling work to a more general business modelling process under uncertainty.
Keywords :
network topology; telecommunication traffic; business modelling; network planning; network topology; traffic forecast uncertainty; Computer aided software engineering; Costs; Demand forecasting; Investments; Optical fiber networks; Predictive models; Process planning; Telecommunication traffic; Traffic control; Uncertainty;
Conference_Titel :
Design of Reliable Communication Networks, 2003. (DRCN 2003). Proceedings. Fourth International Workshop on
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-8118-1
DOI :
10.1109/DRCN.2003.1275370
