A probabilistic modeling foundation for airport surface decision support tools

In this paper, we present a design of a probabilistic modeling approach and structure for airport surface decision support tools. This approach is based on explicit evaluation of possible arrival and departure sequences with their associated individual probabilities. Probabilities of each potential arrival and departure sequence are formulated based on estimated arrival and departure time probability density functions. Through the use of this approach, a significant improvement in the robustness of airport surface modeling for decision support capabilities is possible.