Quantitative method for relating helicopter crew task performance and mission success

A quantitative method that relates aviator performance at the cockpit task level to system performance at the mission level is described. A series of hierarchical, probabilistic conceptual models were developed that link helicopter crew task performance to mission combat success. The models were fashioned so that predictions can be made from crew task performance, through system function performance, through flight segment performance to mission success. The models allow prediction of the relative contribution of each task, function, and segment to mission success. The models link crew task performance to four mission scores: probability of target kill, probability of surviving an enemy threat, probability of surviving ground hazards, and probability of hitting a navigation window. A proof-of-concept of the models was accomplished using subject matter expert (SME) data that were collected for AH-64 helicopter combat operations. This resulted in the production of a total of 236 equations that predict from task performance to mission success, and from mission success to task performance