Vulnerability assessment of the mountain-basin system in the northern tianshan mountains

Mountain-basin system (MBS) is the basic pattern of natural heterogeneity and regionalization in North-western China, and its big extent, multi-Layer and regular complex of terrestrial ecosystems in Northern Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang, China, is the basin and frame to form this kind of pattern. To support regional sustainable development both on theory and practice, more and more vulnerability assessments became comprehensive studies by combining the ecosystem with socioeconomic system. Based on the vulnerability meaning that was composed of impact and adaptive ability, a vulnerability assessment on fifteen counties in the northern Tianshan Mountains was presented in this paper. The ecosystem services changing to land use/cover change (LUCC) was regarded as impact. Based on fourteen indexes from resource holding, society and economy development data, the adaptive ability was evaluated by using various methods and means such as AHP (the analytic hierarchy process), fuzzy comprehensive judging model, LUCC data and GIS. The impact was divided into four grades and the adaptive capacity three grades. And the fifteen counties were divided into five grades under the certain assessment principles, and the higher grade meant more vulnerability. Results showed that: The first grade included Usu City and Changji City. The second included Hutubi County, Miquan County, Fukang City, Jimsar County, Qitai County and Mori Kazak Autonomous County. Karamay City and Urumqi City were in the third grade, the fourth grade was composed of Kuytun City and Shawan County, and Jinghe County, Shihezi City and Manas County fell into the fifth grade. Vulnerability assessment results reflected both eco-environment change and socio-economic development level, which were the key references to ecological restoration and industry structural adjustment. It is necessary to make great efforts to carry out relevant counter-measures and decrease vulnerability, which would benefit the sustainable developm- ent of this kind of typical terrestrial ecosystem complex of MBS in North-western China, and additionally other similar areas.