Bidding Prices Modeling in Colombian Electricity Market using Logistic Regression Model

Author

Jimenez, D. ; Gallego, L. ; Camargo, M.

Author_Institution

Res. Program on Acquisition & Anal. of Signals - PAAS, Nat. Univ. of Colombia, Medellin, Colombia

fYear

2009

fDate

8-12 Nov. 2009

Firstpage

1

Lastpage

6

Abstract

The main goal of this work is to show the application of an econometric model called Logistic Regression (LR) in a study of the bidding prices in the Colombian electricity market. The LR model is used to calculate the statistical significance of some variables of the market and the influence of changes in these variables on the estimated bidding price of Generation Companies GENCOs. The methodology is used to fit the bidding prices behavior of a hydraulic agent considering some exogenous variables such as: hydrological conditions, energy demand, spot prices and competitors behavior. The model obtained with LR shows a good agreement with the real data.

Keywords

power markets; power system simulation; regression analysis; Colombian electricity market; bidding prices modeling; energy demand; generation companies; hydraulic agent; logistic regression model; Business; Contracts; Econometrics; Electricity supply industry; Electricity supply industry deregulation; Information analysis; Law; Logistics; Signal analysis; Uncertainty; Bidding Prices; Electricity Market; Logistic Regression Model;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Intelligent System Applications to Power Systems, 2009. ISAP '09. 15th International Conference on

Conference_Location

Curitiba

Print_ISBN

978-1-4244-5097-8

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/ISAP.2009.5352873

Filename

5352873