Short-term load forecasting at Hydro-Quebec TransEnergie

Author

Grenier, M.

Author_Institution

Hydro-Quebec TransEnergie, Montreal, Que.

fYear

0

fDate

0-0 0

Abstract

This paper first outlines developments over the past 25 years in hourly modeling of native load supplied by Hydro-Quebec. A brief description is then given of the forecasting models used, their performance and derived applications. Beyond hourly forecasting of Quebec demand, these models are used to compute the hourly Np factor, week-ahead probabilistic forecasts, and statistics on normalized energy consumption and peak load. The potential over those 25 years for using analytical model developments is shown. Frequent tuning of model parameters and adjustment to new load contexts ensure that forecasts and derived products are of high quality

Keywords

load forecasting; power consumption; statistical analysis; Hydro-Quebec TransEnergie; Np factor; model parameter tuning; normalized energy consumption statistics; peak load; probabilistic forecasts; short-term load forecasting; Analytical models; Demand forecasting; Energy consumption; Load forecasting; Load modeling; Meteorology; Predictive models; Space heating; Water heating; Weather forecasting; Load forecasting; Load management; Load modeling; Meteorology; Power demand; Prediction methods; Weather forecasting;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Power Engineering Society General Meeting, 2006. IEEE

Conference_Location

Montreal, Que.

Print_ISBN

1-4244-0493-2

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/PES.2006.1709029

Filename

1709029