Statistical analysis of large scale wind power generation using Monte Carlo Simulations

As more wind power generation is installed, the effect of wind power on the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. This paper presents two time series models that can be used in Monte Carlo simulations to assess the risk of very high or low wind speeds occurring contemporaneously in multiple locations. The suitability of the models is assessed for existing measured locations and new non-measured locations. The simulation results are verified against measurements from 19 locations from Finland. Also, an example scenario is given to show the effect of geographical spread on the aggregate power generation of multiple wind power generation units.