Real time reliability analysis based on the performance degradation data and Bayesian method

Failure data is difficult to obtain for the product with high reliability. Through analyzing the performance degradation data, analysis result of reliability will be more reasonable than through traditional approach. A real time reliability evaluation method is developed utilizing the field data, which integrates the advantages of reliability evaluation method based on performance degradation data and Bayesian method. Firstly, the degradation model is created based on the history performance degradation data, and the parameters of the model are estimated as the prior information of Bayesian method; then the model is updated and the reliability is evaluated simultaneously; finally, a piston pump is selected as the study case to verify the validity of this method. Through utilizing the history data of the other same type products and field data of the individual product, the proposed method can fully describe the particularity, and the reliability evaluation result will become much more accurate with the accumulating of the field data.