Materiel development program technical risk evaluation method based on grey relevancy degree

After characteristic analyzing of material development project technical capabilities, this paper defines a quantitative technical risk assessment method based on grey relevancy degree. Firstly, a set of technical capability character parameters of material development project and their values are retrieved by technical capability characters analyzing. Then, by task targets breaking down, every sub-task targets and their corresponding supporting techniques of exiting material projects and developing one are finding out. At last, a technical risk evaluation model is established with analogy theory through calculating the relevancy degree to compared projects.