VLSI technology: outlook for the year 2000 and its impact on systems

Summary form only given. Understanding of physics, process technology and process equipment limitations indicates that fundamental limitations will not be reached by the year 2000. As a result transistor density per chip will reach 50-100 million, with clock frequencies up to 250 MHz. This assumes that the dominant VLSI technology crossing the year 2000 will be silicon-based and there will be a continued trend of effective problem-solving in the areas of photolithography, dry etching and metal interconnection techniques. The increased functional density and performance trends will allow systems integration and performance at unprecedented levels. While the technology projections are clear the systems impact is clouded and provides significant opportunities in hardware and software performance, integration and human interface breakthroughs. The physics and technology limits are assessed and density and performance trends based on manufacturing technology advances are outlined. It is shown that the main impact on systems will be in the areas of integration, performance, parallel processing and human interface. High-performance microprocessors in the year 2000 will include several general-purpose CPUs, vector and graphics unit, supporting cache memory and on-chip testing capability