An Intelligent Load Forecasting Model Based on Self-organizing Polynomial Algorithm

According to the load properties of electric power, a load forecasting model based on self-organizing polynomial algorithm is set up, and it shows its great forecasting performance through an application case. Self-organizing method can effectively settle the problem of modeling for complex non-linear systems, especially can forecast for middle-term or short-term more accurately. Usually, self-organizing method realizes the self-organizing function by pre-threshold or empirically determined value. But in fact, it´s difficult to select proper numerical values, so that the accuracy of the result got from that model will be affected. Therefore, an improved self-organizing polynomial algorithm is presented in order to obtain the real self-organizing function which is of intelligent characters. Finally, a load forecasting example is given to illustrate the validity of this model based on improved algorithm